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In this paper we investigate the impact of transient noise artifacts, or glitches, on gravitational- wave inference from ground-based interferometer data, and test how modeling and subtracting these glitches affects the inferred parameters. Due to their time-frequency morphology, broadband glitches cause moderate to significant biasing of posterior distributions away from true values. In contrast, narrowband glitches induce negligible biasing effects, due to distinct signal and glitch morphologies. We inject simulated binary black hole signals into data containing three occurring glitch types from past LIGO-Virgo observing runs, and reconstruct both signal and glitch waveforms using BayesWave, a wavelet-based Bayesian analysis. We apply the standard LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA deglitching pro- cedure to the detector data, which consists of subtracting from calibrated LIGO data the glitch waveform estimated by the joint BayesWave inference. We produce posterior distributions on the parameters of the injected signal before and after subtracting the glitch, and we show that removing the transient noise effectively mitigates bias from broadband glitches. This study provides a baseline validation of existing techniques, while demonstrating waveform reconstruction improvements to the Bayesian algorithm for robust astrophysical characterization in glitch-prone detector data. 

Abstract Global forests are increasingly lost to climate change, disturbance, and human management. Evaluating forests' capacities to regenerate and colonize new habitats has to start with the seed production of individual trees and how it depends on nutrient access. Studies on the linkage between reproduction and foliar nutrients are limited to a few locations and few species, due to the large investment needed for field measurements on both variables. We synthesized tree fecundity estimates from the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network with foliar nutrient concentrations from hyperspectral remote sensing at the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) across the contiguous United States. We evaluated the relationships between seed production and foliar nutrients for 56,544 tree‐years from 26 species at individual and community scales. We found a prevalent association between high foliar phosphorous (P) concentration and low individual seed production (ISP) across the continent. Within‐species coefficients to nitrogen (N), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), and magnesium (Mg) are related to species differences in nutrient demand, with distinct biogeographic patterns. Community seed production (CSP) decreased four orders of magnitude from the lowest to the highest foliar P. This first continental‐scale study sheds light on the relationship between seed production and foliar nutrients, highlighting the potential of using combined Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) and hyperspectral remote sensing to evaluate forest regeneration. The fact that both ISP and CSP decline in the presence of high foliar P levels has immediate application in improving forest demographic and regeneration models by providing more realistic nutrient effects at multiple scales. 

Abstract Many management and conservation contexts can benefit from understanding relationships between species abundances, which can be used to improve predictions of species occurrence and abundance.We present conditional prediction as a tool to capture information about species abundances via residual covariance between species. From a fitted joint species distribution model, this framework produces a species coefficient matrix that contains relationships between species abundances. The species coefficients allow co‐observed species to be treated as a second set of predictors supplementing covariates in the model to improve prediction. We use simulations to demonstrate the potential benefits and limitations of conditional prediction across data types and species covariance before applying conditional prediction to two management contexts with real data.Simulations demonstrate that conditional prediction provides the largest benefits to continuous data and when there is residual covariance between many species.In our first application, we show that conditioning on other species improves in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictions of fish and invertebrate species, including Atlantic cod. In our second application, we show that the species coefficient matrix can be used to identify bird species at risk of nest parasitism by Brown‐headed Cowbirds.Synthesis and applications. We present guidelines for using conditional prediction, which can help understand relationships between species abundances, improve predictions and inform conservation in a variety of contexts. 

In order to learn about broad scale ecological patterns, data from large-scale surveys must allow us to either estimate the correlations between the environment and an outcome and/or accurately predict ecological patterns. An important part of data collection is the sampling effort used to collect observations, which we decompose into two quantities: the number of observations or plots ( n ) and the per-observation/plot effort ( E ; e.g., area per plot). If we want to understand the relationships between predictors and a response variable, then lower model parameter uncertainty is desirable. If the goal is to predict a response variable, then lower prediction error is preferable. We aim to learn if and when aggregating data can help attain these goals. We find that a small sample size coupled with large observation effort coupled (few large) can yield better predictions when compared to a large number of observations with low observation effort (many small). We also show that the combination of the two values ( n and E ), rather than one alone, has an impact on parameter uncertainty. In an application to Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, we model the tree density of selected species at various amounts of aggregation using linear regression in order to compare the findings from simulated data to real data. The application supports the theoretical findings that increasing observational effort through aggregation can lead to improved predictions, conditional on the thoughtful aggregation of the observational plots. In particular, aggregations over extremely large and variable covariate space may lead to poor prediction and high parameter uncertainty. Analyses of large-range data can improve with aggregation, with implications for both model evaluation and sampling design: testing model prediction accuracy without an underlying knowledge of the datasets and the scale at which predictor variables operate can obscure meaningful results. 

Abstract Small mammals are important to the functioning of ecological communities with changes to their abundances used to track impacts of environmental change. While capture–recapture estimates of absolute abundance are preferred, indices of abundance continue to be used in cases of limited sampling, rare species with little data, or unmarked individuals. Improvement to indices can be achieved by calibrating them to absolute abundance but their reliability across years, sites, or species is unclear. To evaluate this, we used the US National Ecological Observatory Network capture–recapture data for 63 small mammal species over 46 sites from 2013 to 2019. We generated 17,155 absolute abundance estimates using capture–recapture analyses and compared these to two standard abundance indices, and three types of calibrated indices. We found that neither raw abundance indices nor index calibrations were reliable approximations of absolute abundance, with raw indices less correlated with absolute abundance than index calibrations (raw indices overall R2 < 0.5, index calibration overall R2 > 0.6). Performance of indices and index calibrations varied by species, with those having higher and less variable capture probabilities performing best. We conclude that indices and index calibration methods should be used with caution with a count of individuals being the best index to use, especially if it can be calibrated with capture probability. None of the indices we tested should be used for comparing different species due to high variation in capture probabilities. Hierarchical models that allow for sharing of capture probabilities over species or plots (i.e., joint-likelihood models) may offer a better solution to mitigate the cost and effort of large-scale small mammal sampling while still providing robust estimates of abundance.